Vacancy Replacement of Political Elites in Post-reform China

Shilin Jia, Stanford University

This study examines the mobility patterns of Chinese political elites, focusing on the organizational logic and personnel strategies of the Chinese party-state. Rather than analyzing individual career trajectories, this research follows a structural approach by investigating how vacancies within provincial and ministerial units are generated and filled. Drawing on organizational sociology and theories of bureaucratic mobility, the study explores the interplay between centripetal and centrifugal forces shaping cadre transfers. It hypothesizes that elite mobility is influenced by division of labor, hidden status hierarchies, strategic placements in high- and low-stake regions and ministries, and the state's maneuvering of vacancy chains. Using a two-step discrete-choice model, the research aims to systematically predict vacancy-filling patterns and the selection of successors based on institutional constraints, organizational needs, and the characteristics of vacancies and candidates. Leveraging an extensive dataset of high-ranking officials from 1978 to 2011, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of how the Chinese political system manages elite circulation as a tool of governance.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 61. Historical Social Sciences and China (I): New Approaches to Studying Elite Politics