Solving the Antebellum Puzzle: New Evidence from Childhood Sex Ratios

Jesse McDevitt-Irwin, University of Chicago

Dating back to Fogel et al. (1983), researchers have noted that adult male heights among US whites declined over the course of the 19th century. This apparent deterioration in population health during a period of tremendous economic growth has been termed the ‘Antebellum Puzzle’. However, height records are limited for the 19th century, such that researchers have challenged even the existence of the downturn (Bodenhorn et al. 2017; Zimran 2019). The general lack of health measures for the 19th century US has left substantial uncertainty about the timing, nature, and causes of the health deterioration. Building on McDevitt-Irwin and Irwin (2025), I use childhood sex ratios as an indicator of maternal-infant health. Because of the female survival advantage in infancy, high rates of infant death tend to be reflected in female-skewed childhood sex ratios. Readily available from census data, sex ratios can shed new light on this old question in US economic and social history. I first show that the downturn in health suggested by height data is also seen in contemporary childhood sex ratios. I also show that this downturn extended longer than previously thought. According to childhood sex ratios, maternal-infant health in the US deteriorated throughout the entire 19th century, not just in the Antebellum era. I then explore two competing explanations: (1) the effect of market access on nutrition, as laid out by Komlos (1987); and (2) the role of infectious disease spread from cities, as suggested by Haines et al. (2003).

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 53. Historical Change in Fertility Timing and Quantum