The Emergence of National Markets in Republican China (1912-1945)

Zhao Fang, University of Chicago

This paper aims to address two pivotal questions in the realm of the economic history of Republican China: 1) What were the sources of dynamism and growth during this period? 2) Why did these changes during the Republican era lay the foundation for the market economy and sustained economic development for PRC in the post-reform era? I posit that the key to answering these questions lies in understanding the emergence of a unified national market in Republican China. Emergence is a core phenomenon in complex systems, extensively studied in the fields of physics, biology, environmental science, and urban planning through complex systems methodologies. However, its application in historical research remains significantly limited. I have chosen to employ the concept of emergence to describe the evolution of markets from Late Imperial China to the Republican period. There are two primary reasons for adopting this approach. First, case studies have limitations when it comes to understanding the overall market changes; representativeness is an issue, but more importantly, changes at the individual, regional, or sectoral level tend to be continuous, and system-wide phase transitions need to be comprehended from a holistic perspective. Second, the economy during this historical period was globalized, thus inherently an open system rather than the closed systems that laboratory settings are accustomed to. The constant flow of goods, people, and information makes it difficult for traditional narrative units—such as nation, region, or industry—to encapsulate the mechanisms and drivers of change. This paper utilizes price, wage, and social survey data from the Republican era - a customary database build by the author, as well as contemporary observations and commentaries, to reveal the evolution of the goods, financial, and labor markets during this period.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 136. Economic Growth and Sovereignty