Avoiding Inauspicious Births: Fire-Horse Superstition and Sex-Selective Reproduction in Early Modern Japan

Satomi Kurosu, Reitaku University

In 1966, Japan experienced a notable fertility decline of 25% compared to the previous year, largely attributed to the superstition surrounding the year of the fire-horse, which occurs once every 60 years. This superstition, reportedly widespread between 1666 and 1726, held that women born in this year would bring misfortune to their husbands. To avoid such births, people delayed marriage and childbirth and used birth control. But did similar responses occur in early modern Japan? This study examines the impact of the fire-horse superstition in 1726, 1786, and 1846 by applying event history analysis to an individual-level panel dataset of annual household registers from four villages and one town (1708–1870). Controlling for economic stress and socioeconomic status of married women, the superstition had a statistically significant effect on births for the second child and later births. The impact was particularly pronounced among higher socioeconomic households. These findings challenge pre-transitional fertility theory by demonstrating that this population actively controlled births based on sex preference. The fertility response to superstition further reinforces the evidence of deliberate birth planning in early modern Japan.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 53. Historical Change in Fertility Timing and Quantum