Recent Divorce Trends and Differentials in the United States

Phineas Koutlas, University of Minnesota
Steven Ruggles, University of Minnesota

This paper leverages microdata from the American Community Survey and the decennial censuses to assess trends and educational differences in divorce. I present age-standardized divorce rates for the 2008-2022 period using information on divorces during the preceding year (DIVINYR). I also present age-standardized divorce prevalence (percent divorced) for a broader period, from 1960 to 2020. By either measure, the overall incidence and prevalence of divorce peaked in the 2008-2013 period and has declined modestly since then, probably because of increasing selectivity of marriage. Most of the literature assumes that divorce is inversely associated with education, so that higher educational attainment is associated with lower divorce. My analysis suggests a more complicated pattern. Among women in the mid-twentieth century, there was a positive association between divorce and education. For women with less than a college education, this positive association remains intact in recent decades, but college-educated women now have the lowest divorce rates. The highest female divorce rates are now among those with some college, and divorce rates are substantially lower for women without a high school degree. The educational gradient of divorce is substantially different for men. Among mid-twentieth century men, there was an inverse relationship between divorce and education level. In the 21st century, however, divorce rates are lower among men with less than a high school degree than among high school graduates. Accordingly, we need a more nuanced interpretation of the relationship between education and divorce.

No extended abstract or paper available

 Presented in Session 110. Marriage and Divorce: The Role of Social Context and Legal Frameworks