The Contingency of Structures: Triggers and the Social Geography of Revolutionary Episodes in Iran 2018-2022

Ali Kadivar, Boston College
Saber Khani, Boston College
Vahid Abedini, University of Arkansas
Samira Barzin, University of Oxford

What drives the uneven geographic spread of revolutionary episodes? While structural approaches emphasize pre-existing fault lines, contingency approaches highlight emergent processes. We synthesize these perspectives, arguing that specific triggers shape a revolutionary episode’s social geography by activating certain fault lines while leaving others dormant. Through a comparative analysis of three revolutionary episodes in Iran (2018–2022), each with a distinct trigger, we demonstrate how different triggers shape patterns of contention. Using spatial regression analysis of subnational protest data alongside socioeconomic and political variables, we show that a fuel price hike activated grievances in oil-producing areas, while a repressive event targeting a woman from an ethnic and religious minority mobilized protests in minority-populated districts and resonated with the educated class, amplifying demands for female autonomy. Our findings illustrate how triggers structure revolutionary mobilization, offering broader insights into the interaction between structural conditions and contingent events in contentious politics.

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 Presented in Session 116. Politics of the Middle East